Blue Wave Rising: Oregon Election Update

The following is my update of the races that will be contested next month in the state of Oregon.  My projections will be updated probably one more time shortly before election day.  I do not work for any campaign and my projections are my own.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://loadedorygun.net/showDi…

The reason for the title is simple, it is becoming clearer each day that Oregon, a blue state to begin with, is likely to experience another blue wave come this fall as the Democrats really have an opportunity to solidify our control of the state legislature for the next several elections.  This is especially true with the likely addition of a Congressional seat following the 2010 Census, meaning control of the legislature is of paramount importance.

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2.05 Million.

Democrats: 44% (+210k vs. Republicans)

Republicans: 32%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 24%.

Voter Registration Info: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/aug08.pdf

State Voter’s Guide: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/nov42008/military_vp.html

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party.  All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.

Party Key:

D=Democratic

R=Republican

G=Pacific Green

C=Constitution

L=Libertarian

I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).

N=Not a member of a party, or what is otherwise known as independent.

Ratings:

Tossup-Margin less than 3%.

Lean-3-10% margin.

Likely-11-20% margin.

Safe-More than 20% margin.

Inc=Incumbent, Int=Interim Incumbent (Someone appointed to fill a seat until the next election due typically to resignation of the previous holder.  State law allows the party which held the seat to essentially appoint the replacement.  For example, when my State Senator resigned to take a job as the leader of a moderate Business Lobbying group, as a Precinct Committee Person I was entitled to vote for his replacement, which was then ratified by the County Commission).

Statewide Races:

Ratings Changes:

US President upgrade to Likely Dem-McCain closed his only office in the state, meaning it could well be a rout.

US Senate upgrade to Lean Dem-I was hesitant to do this for the longest time to Merkley is appearing to rise with each day as Smith falters.  This is a very tenuous lean dem rating, however.

State Treasurer downgrade to Likely Dem-No big deal, I just think with Allen Alley contesting this race, Westlund will not win by more than 15-18% or so.

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Ralph Nader (P), Cynthia McKinney (G), Bob Barr (L) and Chuck Baldwin (C).

Summary: McCain closed his only office in Oregon, thereby ending any real chance that McCain had in this state.  Count 7 EVs for Obama, with the only question being the margin.

Rating: Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D) and David Brownlow (C).

Summary: Jeff has surged pretty significantly over the past few weeks and now has the slightest of leads.  It’s not over by a long shot but if I had to guess, Merkley would win with Smith well under 50% approval.

Rating: Lean Merkley.

Secretary of State

Candidates: State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (D) vs. Eugene TV Reporter Rick Dancer (R) and Seth Allan Wooley (G).

Summary: Kate Brown is going to absolutely kick the crap out of Dancer.  Dancer isn’t even that good of a candidate and I have seen no sign of a campaign here.

Rating: Safe Brown.

Attorney General

John Kroger (D) faces only minor party candidates and should cruise.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R) and Michael Marsh (C)

Summary: Allen Alley is contesting this race, meaning it won’t be an absolute rout but should still be a very solid win for Westlund.

Rating: Likely Westlund.

Labor Commissioner (Technically a nonpartisan race, 2 year vacancy filling election)

Candidates: Former State Senator Brad Avakian (D-int.) vs. Founder, Instructor/Provider of a physical and mental fitness program Pavel Goberman (D) and Losing CD1 Candidate Mark Welzycko (D).

Summary: Avakian should have little trouble, given his status as a well known figure in state politics and the lack of funding for any of his opponents.

Rating: Safe Avakian.

Ballot Measures:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Ratings Changes:

Measure 61 to Tossup-Mandatory Minnimum measures typically pass, so I am changing this rating slightly.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 54 (C):

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

Known Opposition: None.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Known Opposition: Taxpayer Association of Oregon (Far Right), Bill Sizemore (Sponsor of all things extremely libertarian).

Outlook: Likely Yes, the legislature’s approval should allow this one to win pretty easily.  The game is clearly on over this measure but I doubt it’ll have trouble.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Known Opposition: Kevin Mannix and his crew.

Outlook: Leans Yes, my guess is that with both on the ballot, Mannix’s extreme measure will fail when compared to this one.  An interesting note is that if they both pass, the one with more yes votes gets enacted.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Known Opposition: I would think a lot of progressive groups will mobilize against this one.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, similar measures have failed in the past, and this will be no different.

Measure 59 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Known Opposition: A leading coalition of progressive groups will once again mobilize against this one.

Outlook: Likely No, the good news is that although Sizemore can qualify measures, he can’t pass them.  This proposal has failed by increasingly wider margins every time it’s been proposed.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Known Opposition: The Oregon Education Association will doubtless go all out against this measure.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, in 2000 a similar measure was rejected with 65% of the vote.  This measure is really nothing more than Sizemore’s latest vehicle for attacking the Teacher’s Union, which has pursued his illegal activities (he’s been nailed for racketeering multiple times) constantly.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Known Opposition: Most of the Legislature for one (See Measure 57) as well as most of the moderate and progressive groups in the state.

Outlook: Tossup, with the competing measure by the legislature, this one will be close, perhaps very close.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Known Opposition: The current groups that receive lottery funds, schools and parks, have opposed this.

Outlook: Tossup, IMHO a bad idea but measures like this have fared pretty well in the past.  Still, I think its a bit more likely to fail than I thought in the past.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Known Opposition: A wide coalition led by building companies.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, when even the building companies oppose a measure designed to help them, you know its not a good idea.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Known Opposition: The progressive movement in this state will mobilize to kill this one.

Outlook: Likely No, Sizemore=without power, Public Employee Unions=Powerful, enough said.  

Measure 65 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Known Opposition: Both the Oregon D’s and R’s oppose this strongly.

Outlook: Leans No, the state parties will spend a lot of $ to kill it, so I’ll list it as leans no for now.  Also the Oregonian is endorsing it, which typically means it’ll lose (the Oregonian has a history of endorsing losing candidates/propositions).

Congressional Races:

Ratings Changes:

OR-5 upgrade to Likely Dem-Schrader’s going to win, likely by more than Hooley ever did.

District 1: Wu (D-inc) will cruise.

District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble.  If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.

District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.

District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) faces only minor party opposition.

District 5

Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).

Registration Info: 165k Ds, 144k Rs, 88k NP/Others.

Summary: Erickson is burning his money running two smear ads against Schrader but has yet to run a single positive ad.  The bottom line on this district is that, in the words of political analyst Larry Sabato:

Listen up kids: here’s not how to run for Congress. Lesson one: don’t pay for your girlfriend to have an abortion if you are a pro-life candidate. Lesson two: don’t lie about it when the story is confirmed by said girlfriend. Lesson three: don’t travel to Cuba, visit the famed Tropicana night club, attend a cigar festival and cockfight, and claim the trip was for “humanitarian purposes.” Lesson four: if failing to follow lesson three, don’t claim “I’ve never smoked a whole cigar in my entire life.”

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the campaign of Mike Erikson, still the Republican nominee for Oregon’s 5th Congressional district. Since the GOP primary, Erikson stock has fallen faster than Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and no Republican officeholder or conservative group has dared to endorse him. Once, the GOP was optimistic about its chances of capturing a rare swing district open seat, but no more. As it stands right now, Democrat Mark (sic) Schrader is a virtual lock (unless he has secrets of his own) to become the next Representative from the state of Oregon.  

  (Link: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2008/house/?state=OR)

Rating: Likely Schrader.  

Oregon Legislature:

Rankings:

Within each category, the highest rated seat is the one considered closest.  E.g. the highest rate seat in the tossup category is considered the most of a “tossup”.  Races within the “Safe” category are not ranked.

Key: *=Targeted Seat.

Oregon Senate

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Ratings Changes:

None.

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-This one may be a bit closer than expected because the Rs have fielded a candidate via write-in.  I still believe it is going to be Monnes Anderson by a lot though.

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

Lean Races:

*1st-27 (Bend)

Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican).  That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now given the blue trend of Deschutes County, the center of this district.

Outlook: Leans Telfer.

2nd-9 (Stayton)

Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).

Registration: R+4k.

Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs.  Girod still has the edge though.

Outlook: Leans Girod.

3rd-12 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat.  This district is certainly changing but I don’t know if it is changing fast enough or if Nortness is a good enough candidate to replace the well-known Boquist.

Outlook: Leans Boquist.

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 20 R, 8 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for them.

Ratings Changes:

7 (Roseburg-Hanna (R) defending)-Downgraded to Likely Republican-I know the registration numbers or close but it is still Roseburg and Hanna has more than enough $ to fend off a challenger.

9 (Coos Bay-Roblan (D) defending)-Upgraded to Likely Dem-I just don’t see Arnie running into trouble in this rematch.

22 (Woodburn-Komp (D) defending)-Upgraded to Likely Dem-Komp’s opponent is a complete nut, enough said.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).

7 (Roseburg)-Hanna (R).

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).

9 (Coos Bay)-Roblan (D).

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

21 (Salem)-Clem (D).

22 (Woodburn)-Komp (D).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).

43 (Portland)-Shields (D).

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).

Lean Races:

*1st-26 (Wilsonville)

Candidates: Matt Wingard (R-int.) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap.  In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for using a screwdriver on his son.  The Repubs were panicked enough that incumbent Jerry Krummel resigned so that Wingard could go in as the “incumbent”.  Adamson is running a good campaign but it still is Wilsonville so Wingard has the edge.

Outlook: Leans Wingard.

2nd-19 (Salem)

Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).

Registration: R+ less than 1k

Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past.  Cameron is vulnerable, especially to a good candidate such as Day.  Interesting fact, Cameron runs the cafeteria that operates in the basement of the Oregon Capitol that I ate in probably three times a week during the 2005 session.  Let’s just say, his food is much better than he is as a legislator but this is still a historically R-leaning district so he has the edge.

Outlook: Leans Cameron.

*3rd-49 (Gresham)

Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).

Registration: D+4.5k

Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district.  Republicans think Kahl is a lightweight because he’s young and relatively inexperienced.  Kahl certainly would appear to face an uphill battle but this district’s D tilt should be enough to put him over the top.

Outlook: Leans Kahl.

*4th-30 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: This is the Republican’s only targeted seat and Duyck might have been a good candidate ten or even four years ago.  Instead, I think that the longtime Washington County politician will fall short against Edwards, who ran a campaign fraught with problems, much of it self-inflicted, in 2006, and still won.  Hillsboro is changing and Edwards will take advantage of it.

Outlook: Leans Edwards.

5th-23 (Dallas)

Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: This open seat battle could be one for the books.  That being said, I have to give the edge to Thompson for now because it is an R-leaning district.

Outlook: Leans Thompson.

6th-18 (Silverton)

Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D/I).

Registration: R+2.2k

Summary: Jim Gilbert is back for another attempt at an upset here.  This is clearly his best chance yet but it won’t be easy.  If the Repubs lose this district, it will have been a big night.

Outlook: Leans Gilliam.

7th-59 (The Dalles)

Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).

Registration: R+1k

Summary: This was the district that shocked everyone in 2006 as it was almost a D pickup.  However, I think Huffman will not be caught unaware as a result, though an upset is possible.

Outlook: Leans Huffman.

8th-15 (Albany)

Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).

Registration: D and R even

Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive.  Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there.  Olson, a former State Policeman, has the edge at this point though.

Outlook: Leans Olson.

9th-17 (Scio)

Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset.  Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here.  Still, this is definitely a district with an R tilt, so it’ll be an uphill battle.

Outlook: Leans Sprenger.

10th-6 (Medford)

Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win.  My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.

Outlook: Leans Esquivel.

Tossup Races:

*1st-39 (Canby)

Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call.  Both candidates are well known and respected in the community.  This one should be very close.  If I had to give an edge to anyone it would likely be the Republican because he is very well known in the area.

Outlook: Tossup.

*2nd-52 (Corbett)

Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland.  This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch.  If I had to guess, I’d give a very slight edge to VanOrman right now.

Outlook: Tossup.

*3rd-54 (Bend)

Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).

Registration: D+1.5k

Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years thanks largely to an influx of California retirees.  This could well be the year Stiegler, who barely lost to Burley in an open seat race here four years ago, breaks through and wins it.  Bend is probably the area that is suffering most from the recent economic downturn as its once booming housing market collapses, making this a slightly better seat for the dems.

Outlook: Tossup.

*4th-37 (West Linn)

Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).

Registration: D+ less than 1k.

Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area.  Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district, which now has a very slight D edge.  Eberle is running by far the most ads of any candidate on either side of any legislative race so far, at least in my area.

Outlook: Tossup.

*5th-51 (Clackamas)

Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores.  Barton has as good a chance as anyone and has huge financial backing.  It would be so sweet if we could pull this off.

Outlook: Tossup.

6th-20 (Independence/Monmouth)

Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc.) vs. Richard Riggs (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy.  She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though.

Outlook: Tossup.

7th-24 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006.  If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here.

Outlook: Tossup.

8th-50 (Fairview)

Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery.  He probably wins but it’ll be closer than its been for a while.

Outlook: Tossup.

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.